President Kenyatta has lost the trust of most of his political lieutenants
in Central Kenya, the ground has drastically shifted with many people responding
and receiving the news about him with bitterness,regardless of his BBI initiative
with his “Bigger brother” Raila
Odinga.
Uhuru and Raila’s equation cannot work out for 2022 politics as voting game
plans have changed. Most voters are youth and most youth in Central Kenya are
championing for DP.William Ruto especially with handful of young leaders behind
him,On other hand Uhuraila is trying
to win the game using the old age which actually make a minor percentage of the voters not only
in the region but countrywide.
As the matrix stands now, anyone thinking that Raila will get anything in
Central Kenya courtesy of the handshake must be delusional, doomed or new in Kenyan
politics which with no doubt is driven by three things:Tribe,History and Cash.
Railas tribe is hard to market in central Kenya; his personal history cannot
be redeemed in central unless if it will be world’s crazy miracle in the 21st century,
his cheapskate way of life in terms of and lack of
generosity runs parallel with the game of the region.
If I may be asked to tell Raila a bitter and naked truth that might help him
reconstruct himself in case he needs to climb into power come 2022,then i will
tell him openly tell him that he is literally
wasting his time with Uhuru hoping for Central Kenya support.
Ruto has taken over the Central Kenyan politics especially by washing
Odingas dirty linen in public, Ruto is not a man to assume, neither is he a
competitor to mark time will countering. For any person serious with politics
and the 2022 political game, Ruto must be a big threat and a man to watch.
On the other hand, the inferiority in the central Kenya against this man
Raila Odinga who has been tagged a perennial loser, and the lord of poverty
might not just allow leaders from the region to accept him as a commodity on
high demand for the region.
Another serious thing to observe is that Ruto now as the king pin in the
Rift valley region, is seen as the only person who can serve the interests of
the Kikuyu community who have dominated a good percentage of the rift valley,
as central Kenya observes keenly not to again put their brothers from the rift
region in the hands of the enemy come 2022.
Having said this, I can guarantee you that come 2022 GEMA votes will all go
to one candidate and it will not be Raila Odinga endorsed by Uhuru regardless
of BBI or any other strategy they might jointly make.
Even Uhuru himself knows that selling
Raila in central Kenya, however much resources you use to pimp him, is close to
impossible, it is just a gamble of opening a pork joint in Pakistan against the
Muslim belief and religion.
The only way Uhuru can influence the entire Mount Kenya to back a candidate
of his choice is if that candidate is neither Raila nor Ruto. But it’s very
hard to excluded Ruto out of his game, and so the only left option is to
declare his full support to Ruto followed by a Kikuyu.
Again, should Uhuru miraculously wise up and go for someone like a Matiangi,
Mudavadi or Mutua supported by a Kikuyu candidate, then Mt. Kenya will toe the
line but this story of its either Raila or Ruto will never work automatically for
him.
Also for Ruto,there are still some
minor equations that he needs to observe.He needs to understand that despite
being popular as he thinks he is, Central Kenya has
never forgiven him as a whole, some Kiambaa church victims still hold him
accountable for what they faced in 2007 when he was Odingas die hard and point
man.
However i must admit that Arap Samoei is smart and for this reason, i will
must give him credit for somehow managing to repackage himself and convince a
good number of them, thus gunner some support on the ground.
But knowing his Strategy to State House is banked on Moi’s principal of
divide and rule Central Kenya,i can also smell a rat given that its close to
impossible for anyone to apply this principal in central Kenya .I only see errors
for team DP if this is what he is still
banking on.
Central Kenya will not allow their votes to be divided.
So in conclusion, the 2022 race to statehouse is still open,
but yes it is close for Ruto than Raila especially if the duo Uhuru and Raila
stick to BBI and referendum push.
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